Week 11

Overview

Technology Assessment and Forecasting-Developing framework for understanding what comes next is one of my favourite topics as it is so flexible without much theory. It essentially falls under the future development part of our topical review paper!!! Luckily prof extended the review paer dateline because what was taught in this class was useful to me. I like the quote by US President Hayes to Alexander Graham Bell in 1876 when he invented the telephone saying that "An amazing invention, but who would ever want to have one? " It is really true that it is difficult to market one's invention, especially if a sponsor company is required. As mentioned earlier in other lessons, we talked about technology that aid in the medical sector such as portable tools that are able to do simple scanning of the patient. this technology was no able to be produced because many doctors strongly rejected the idea as it might render their service less useful in that there is no need for consultation. Thus, even though the invention is very useful, it will not be able to launched if company's feels threatened by it. In this world, it is every man for himself and not for humanity.

Moreover, new ideas such as photoshop which was invented by 2 brothers named Thomas and John Knoll had difficulties finding a sponsor and a manufacture to market their products. It was not until they visited adobe which they accepted the idea. Think about it, if adobe did not accept their idea and helped them market it, we would not have been able to enjoy the benefits that photoshop and computer arts would not have existed.

Interesting observations

Article written by P Bala Bhaskaran on Futurology talks about the importance of looking at the past to predict the future. He says that the past could project "current trends onto the future through extrapolation, through scenario building, through brainstorming, through forecasting etc. One of the tools for mapping foresight is by the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN) which had been a great tool for many policy-makers, foresight practitioners and others who require information to make an informed decision. It consolidates past researches and any information regarding the field of concern so users could simply download it and garner themselves with the necessary knowledge to create future technologies or decisions. This data could be used to monitor developments in the foresight fields across the globe on an annual basis (European Commission, 2009). By doing so, it maps out the process by countries and also facilitates competition to some. To put it in layman’s term, technological mapping foresight is all about getting information, knowing the problem and analysing how future potential technologies can be implemented in a strategic time line.

Adapted from Showker Graphic Arts

One thing that surprises me is that none of the countries uses gaming (as shown in the diagram above).

I believe gaming should be a major drive for foresight exercises since it can map out the scenarios visually and users may even be able to experience a virtual scenario whereby the pressing problem is so real that new solutions arises in their minds. After all, I believe that change occurs fastest in times of crisis.

Key takeaways

• New technology requires a long period of time for it to be accepted by the pioneers and later by the masses. Government measure to support such inventions in terms of monetary funding would indeed spur more innovations.

• Forecasting is important and games as a tool for mapping foresight should be included!

Further discussion

I think further discussion on the ways that companies and individuals who have an invention created, could patent their ideas or innovations. More could be talked about regarding copy right issues and patents.

Rating

8/10

I believe gaming should be a major